As Bitcoin is in the home stretch for 2023, many are wondering if the leading cryptocurrency is going to preserve the gains it has achieved over the past few months and end the year on a high note or, on the contrary, do a 180 and plummet right before the final push. As always, there are no certainties and guarantees in crypto. Prices can go up for a while and drive investor optimism, and then the rally can end abruptly, swerving the trend in the opposite direction. So, it’s really difficult to keep up with these ongoing changes and predict how Bitcoin might behave.
Bitcoin’s recent price appreciation has prompted many investors to reconsider their strategies and increase their BTC holdings. Although it’s possible to purchase crypto through traditional channels like online brokers, or money transfer apps, the best way to buy Bitcoin and the most widely used method is via crypto exchanges. According to the latest data, the trading volume on these platforms has seen a considerable surge recently, indicating that Bitcoin’s price rise has been making waves in the market.
But is Bitcoin’s bullish run going to continue in 2024 and keep the asset above 40K? Let’s take a look at the possibilities and analyze the potential scenarios that might unfold in the near future.
A year-long appreciation journey
Although Bitcoin has seen the biggest increase in the past couple of months, surging by more than 60% since mid-October, the asset was already on the path to recovery since January. Bitcoin started 2023 trading at $16,000 and continued to move upward throughout the year, with only minor setbacks hampering its appreciation, surpassing one threshold after another.
In April, Bitcoin managed to go above 30K for the first time since June 2022, but this proved to be a stronger-than-expected resistance level. The asset fell back and struggled to breach 30K in the following months, entering a period of stagnation and moving in a closed price range between $26-$29K.
Then in October things started to take a turn for the better as Bitcoin rallied past the psychological 30K mark and it was mostly onward and upward from here. In December, Bitcoin rose to a yearly record shy of $45,000, giving market participants hope that this might be the beginning of the much-awaited crypto bull run. However, Bitcoin’s ascent quieted down shortly after this brief peak, with prices fluctuating under $44k. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was standing at $43,065, with a monthly gain of 17% and a 60-day increase of 45%.
The fact that Bitcoin failed to pass $45K and fell closer to $40K several times represents a cause of concern for many stakeholders who expected Bitcoin to sustain the bullish momentum. At the same time, Bitcoin’s holding above $40K proves that there’s still a chance for the asset to break above previous highs and continue its growth in the months to come.
Bitcoin’s chart analysis
While yearly trends provide an overall picture of Bitcoin’s evolution in 2023 and help draw up an outlook for the end of the year, hourly charts can offer further insights into the coin’s recent price patterns and potential movements for the future. At the moment, Bitcoin’s chart clearly shows a falling wedge pattern. This happens when an asset experiences an upswing right before a price correction causes its value to dip.
In Bitcoin’s case, the price is currently closer to the upper trend line of the wedge. If Bitcoin breaks through it, the coin will likely trend higher and even surpass the former $45K peak. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks through the lower trend line, this could lead to further devaluation and cause the asset to retract under $40K.
So, while the falling wedge is a bullish pattern that indicates a potential price increase, things can go both ways. Since the balance tilts toward a favorable outcome for Bitcoin right now, analysts are rather optimistic in their projections.
The factors that could influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory
As with any other financial tool, Bitcoin is constantly under the influence of a variety of factors in the market and the broader financial sphere. Looking at the events and developments that can impact Bitcoin’s final run, there are two aspects that stand out the most.
First, we have the anticipation around spot Bitcoin ETFs which contributed heavily to Bitcoin’s recent rally. BlackRock and a handful of other major asset management agencies have filed applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this year. Most experts predict that the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETFs en masse in January 2024. If their predictions come true, this would become a historical moment for crypto, marking its transition from a speculative asset class confined to the outskirts of the financial system to a legitimate monetary tool and investment venue. Such massive progress will obviously spur a considerable price increase.
The halving is the other event that can bring major changes in Bitcoin’s price. Every halving event so far has resulted in bull runs for Bitcoin. So, if the pattern repeats itself, Bitcoin might be in for a massive price increase in the following months, which could propel the asset far beyond its all-time high of $68,789.
Wrapping up
Despite the usual volatility, Bitcoin’s performance throughout 2023 has been quite strong, with the asset increasing by almost 160% since January. Now that we’re a few short steps away from entering a new year and a new chapter in Bitcoin’s history, crypto enthusiasts are keeping their fingers crossed for the coin to maintain above $40K and strengthen its position. If there’s anything to take away from Bitcoin’s journey so far is that the flagship crypto is as resilient and full of surprises as ever, so the chances of a future price appreciation are pretty high.
